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The likelihood the Fed cuts rates later this year also increased. "The Fed does not aim get rate policy right just in time, they aim to get it right over time." Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.904%. Gold prices slipped as the CPI data was viewed as mixed and triggered profit-taking by some investors.
Equity markets initially rose as the CPI data suggested the Fed's most aggressive rate hikes in four decades were yielding results. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the world (.MIWD00000PUS) edged down 0.06%, while stocks on Wall Street wavered after an early rally. CHINA CRACKDOWNForeign exchange markets had been treading water while markets weighed policymakers' rhetoric against traders' conviction that U.S. interest rates should fall. Emerging markets currencies rallied on Wednesday following the U.S. data, with MSCI's index (.MIEM00000CUS) up 0.15%. U.S. crude recently fell 2.06% to $72.19 per barrel and Brent was at $76.00, down 1.86% on the day.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."
US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."
Yields on U.S. 2-year Treasury notes have plunged over 100 basis points following the failure of some regional U.S. banks last month. But markets are pricing for a series of interest rate cuts starting just two months later, underscoring an exceptionally large divergence from the central bank's own view. That recent downward trend in yields is forecast to continue further, according to the April 5-12 poll of over 60 bond strategists. However, in the coming three months, yields on both 2-year and 10-year notes were expected to rise 20 and 25 basis points, respectively, before resuming their fall. Relatively high volatility has also been a driver of yield forecasts over the past few months.
The recent banking failures have opened up a Pandora's box, TD strategist Priya Misra warned. The gaping hole in banks' balance sheets will remain even as volatility fades, she said. "I think you opened a Pandora's box and massive unrealized losses sitting on banks' balance sheets," she said, adding that banks would likely need to sell their assets or raise capital. "The market will have to get used to a Fed that's not being responsive enough," Misra warned. Other Wall Street analysts have warned of a recession to strike this year, which could weigh heavily on stocks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed has no choice but to engineer a hard landing: TD Securities' Priya MisraPriya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss where rates are headed, what would fall to lower inflation, and more.
Inflation has probably peaked, says TD Securities' Priya Misra
  + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation has probably peaked, says TD Securities' Priya MisraPriya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss her thoughts on the bond markets, rising rates, and more.
Watch CNBC's full interview with TD Securities' Priya Misra
  + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with TD Securities' Priya MisraPriya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss her thoughts on the bond markets, rising rates, and more.
Vedanta's sale of its zinc assets in South Africa and Namibia to Hindustan Zinc is critical to ensuring liquidity at parent company Vedanta Resources. The government holds a near 30% stake in Hindustan Zinc, while Vedanta owns almost 65%. "As far as Hindustan Zinc is concerned, we always believe in and operate in perfect manners of corporate governance, so (there is) no deviation on that count," Hindustan Zinc Chief Executive Arun Misra told CNBC-TV18 on Monday. Hindustan Zinc has three months from the deal announcement to hold the shareholders' meeting to seek approval for the deal. Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - India's Adani Group and two of its main subsidiaries caught up in a short-selling storm in recent weeks are to hold calls with bond investors on Feb. 16 and Feb. 21, according to a document seen by Reuters. The planned calls follow a long-awaited credit report issued by the Indian conglomerate earlier this week that said its companies faced no material refinancing risk, or near-term liquidity issues. According to the document sent to investors the call on Thursday for Adani Group will be attended by its Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Jugeshinder Singh and head of Group Corporate Finance Anupam Misra. An Adani Green Energy call also on Thursday will involve its CFO Phuntsok Wangyal, and an Adani Transmission call next week will be attended by its CFO Rohit Soni and CFO of Adani Electricity Kunjal Mehta. Rating agencies S&P Global and Moody's this month revised their outlooks to negative from stable for some of the group's companies, while index provider MSCI said it would cut the weightings of some Adani companies in its stock indexes.
Bond strategists at JPMorgan noted recently that the U.S. Treasury market is already priced for a recession and not just for the heightened risks of one. Already off their peaks from late last year and early 2023, major benchmark government bond yields have eased 20-40 basis points since, and more than 50 basis points on the particularly rate-sensitive U.S. two-year Treasury yield. That is about 30 basis points lower on the one-year horizon than a poll published in December. This would extend one of the longest periods on record where two-year yields have been higher than 10-year ones, a yield curve inversion. The poll expected German bund yields to rise from their current 2.25% to around 2.4% in three and six months.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailService consumption is not slowing down into recession territory, says TD Securities' Priya MisraPriya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities, and Michael Zinn, UBS senior portfolio manager, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the economy, a potential pivot from the Federal Reserve, and more.
UBS's Mark Haefele says there's a strong possibility the January market rally is a "head fake." But the rally has sputtered to a halt after US stocks sold off this week to erase half the gains they've made in 2023. "But it remains possible that the rally is a 'head fake,' and that economic data will ultimately disappoint." This may be due in part to a strong labor market keeping wage growth robust. And despite energy's astonishing rally last year, Haefele still believes that there's still room to go for the sector.
Inflation is expected to cool down in 2023, partly due to the Inflation Reduction Act. Last March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell embarked on an aggressive interest rate-hiking cycle, while President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act in August. 20 stocks to profit from taming inflationAccording to Lee, IRA tailwinds could drive over 50% upside in earnings or stock prices in 20 select stocks as early as 2023. Surprisingly, the 20 stocks poised to benefit from IRA also included names from energy services and financials, two sectors with "underappreciated upside," Lee wrote. Below are the 20 stocks Lee and his team identified as the biggest IRA beneficiaries.
As equities plunge and recessionary fears grow, bond yields look increasingly enticing. "Fixed income starts to look attractive if recession risks are growing," said Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities, in a recent interview with Insider. To offset these more liquid assets, Misra recommended investors look to pick up yield, such as with mortgage-backed securities, which she said look attractive at their current spreads. However, Misra believes that the current 10-year Treasury yield of around 3.7% feels a little too low, especially since she forecasts rates climbing slightly higher in the near future. While investment-grade bonds have less default risk, Misra believes investors may find it hard to pick and choose winning sectors within a high-interest-rate economy.
Misra: The bond market is pricing in a shallow recession in 2023
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMisra: The bond market is pricing in a shallow recession in 2023Priya Misra, Head of Rates Strategy at TD Securities, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss the Federal Reserve, a potential recession, and interest rates.
SoftBank's Vision Fund just experienced one of its most dismal years in its history. SoftBank's Vision Fund was once a power broker, having raised a jaw-dropping $100 billion in 2017, followed by plans to raise $108 billion for Vision Fund 2 in 2019 — two of the largest venture-investing vehicles ever established. But insiders are now questioning if it will ever regain influence, according to 11 ex-Vision Fund investors, former employees, VCs, and industry analysts who weighed in on the future of the Vision Fund. One ex-Vision Fund investor described Son, now taking the reins of Vision Fund 2, as someone who is "not a manager." Given its investing performance so far, the obvious question is what happens once Vision Fund 2 has reached full investment.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNatWest's Girard and TD Securities' Misra break down what to expect from today's Fed policy meetingMichelle Girard, Head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Priya Misra, Global Head of Rates Strategy at TD Securities, join Worldwide Exchange to discuss their expectations for the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision.
TOKYO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - SoftBank Group Corp (9984.T) has created an executive committee to oversee its second Vision Fund, Latin America funds and any future funds, its founder and Chief Executive Masayoshi Son said in a memo to employees reviewed by Reuters. Alex Clavel will oversee investing teams in the United States and Latin America, Greg Moon will manage teams in Europe and Asia and Navneet Govil, Vision Fund's chief financial officer, will oversee other functional teams, Son wrote. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe appointment of a new committee comes as Vision Fund architect Rajeev Misra has ceded his frontline role at the second fund to launch an external fund. Son has said the second fund invested at frothy prices and is slashing headcount at the Vision Fund unit. The creation of the executive committee was first reported by Bloomberg.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTop Fed watchers say we're starting to see the toll that tighter monetary policy is having on various parts of the economyPriya Misra of TD Securities and Sarah House of Wells Fargo discuss the future path of the Fed's policy, and whether the markets are correctly pricing in rate hikes.
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